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Wainhouse Predicts Cisco Videoconferencing Exit in 2013 and Other New Year Prognostications
Via the Wainhouse Research Bulletin
As we move into 2013 some of our analysts couldn't help taking the bait I offered and put their names on the line. "Take a stance," I said. "Be wild." Note that many of these are pure speculation, our once-a-year chance to have fun thinking about the sublime and the ridiculous -- or what is truly happening (depends on the analyst). From the likely to the daringly provocative, here are some Wainhouse Research analyst predictions for the coming year.
Marc Beattie -- Audio. Arkadin succeeds in establishing a joint partnership to manage collaboration services for a major telco on all major continental regions (North America, South America, Asia, Australia, Europe, Africa), ignoring Antarctica for obvious reasons. Of particular interest will be the transition of a major US telco to the "Arkadin Way."
Unlike any other CSP, Arkadin has succeeded in establishing a program to take over sales and operations of local telcos and dramatically improve sales. Many telcos whose collaboration services are flat or declining will find this proposition very appealing.
Steve Vonder Haar -- Streaming and webcasting. Expect at least one M&A event involving peer-to-peer networking vendors-- most notably Kontiki or Ignite Technologies -- as larger streaming platform developers seek to expand the scope of their solutions.
Andy Nilssen -- Web Conferencing. Citrix, Adobe, and others will roll out a freemium version of their web conferencing offering to counter the emergence of credible freemium offerings from WebEx and others that gained momentum in 2012.
Alan D. Greenberg -- Distance Ed & e-Learning. Colleges and universities will continue to trial and discover how to use Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) for program building, branding, and creation of new business models. Some education-directed collaboration vendors will struggle to identify new solutions to address the scalability requirements of MOOCs. EDU subscribers should see our new research note on MOOCs and collaboration.
Bill Haskins -- UC. Telephony enabled UC finally will begin to gain critical mass in the mid-to-large enterprise. Though not "sexy" in the UC world, telephony integration is a key step in the successful unification of an enterprise's core communications. Telephony is also one of the more challenging technologies for many organizations to unify -- just two years ago, less than 15% of enterprises could boast a telephony-enabled UC platform. Now a number of trends are removing UC telephony barriers: lower reliance on telephony based on a shift towards text-based communications; a sea of aging TDM PBXs; continued integration between telecom and IT departments; and growing respect for Microsoft Lync as a telephony platform. I expect to see a number of telephony-enabled UC implementations continue to increase, and the telephony role implemented in over 40% of UC deployments by the end of 2013.
Andrew W. Davis -- Video conferencing. Cisco will exit the hardware-based group video conferencing and telepresence business and concentrate on voice solutions, UC, social, and software clients for all forms of collaboration. This will take one of three forms: 1) a shutdown, as was the case with Flip video; 2) a sell-off to a third party much like HP did in 2011 when it sold its Halo business to Polycom; 3) a spin-off into a new company (how ironic were it to be named Tandberg) much like AT&T did years ago with Lucent.
Ira M. Weinstein� -- Video conferencing.
- A growing number of video conferencing product vendors will release service offerings designed to motivate additional usage, generate recurring revenue streams, increase customer stickiness, and differentiate their offerings.
Derek Abrams -- Video conferencing.
- The proliferation of personal video conferencing will motivate enterprises to outsource an even greaterportion of their video conferencing environment to service providers.
Come back in December 2013 and we'll let you know how we did!
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