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UPDATED AGAIN- July 15th-The Crash of Commercial Aviation and Telepresence

April 14, 2008 | Howard Lichtman
Air_Crash.jpgIn our 2006 paper Telepresence, Effective Visual Collaboration, and the Future of Global Business at the Speed of Light we predicted that the collapse of the dollar would send the cost of oil skyrocketing which would destroy the airlines' business model.  Specifically we wrote:

"For decades, commercial and executive aviation have provided cost-effective transportation for business travel largely thanks to relatively inexpensive jet fuel from relatively inexpensive crude oil. From 1994-2004, the price for a barrel of NYMEX light sweet crude averaged between $10 and $30 a barrel. Since 2004, the price per barrel has more than doubled to $71.76 as of this writing (June 12th, 2006) and the price of jet fuel has risen from $0.82 a gallon to $3.45 a gallon today.xxiv And it won't stop there. A number of potential geopolitical risks, natural disasters and resource economics issues could very well send the price of oil even higher, making a significant impact on the affordability and convenience of air travel.

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The Oil Picture in 2006 vs. the Oil Picture Today

The commercial aviation industry relies on cheap seats and full planes. Reducing either side of this equation creates a vicious cycle for the carriers. Rising fuel prices equals higher ticket prices, which reduces demand for seats. Less passengers leads to even higher ticket prices as carriers cover flying costs at reduced capacities. Higher ticket price leads to . . . reduced demand for seats. Dramatically more expensive oil could deal another significant blow to the international aviation industry, which saw five bankruptcies in 2005 and is still reeling from six straight years of net losses, with 2006 set to be number seven.xxv The International Air Transport Association recently raised its 2006 net loss forecast to $3 billion from $2.2 billion, and a major increase in the price of jet fuel would substantially increase these losses even further and most likely see marginally profitable routes and flights eliminated making air travel even less convenient.xxvi Additional airline bankruptcies will inevitably lead to reduced competition, which equals higher costs and less convenience.

The growth of telepresence and effective visual collaboration will worsen this dynamic by further reducing demand for commercial aviation among business travelers who are the airlines least price dependent customers. When Cigna deployed two TeleSuite Systems between its offices in Philadelphia and Bloomfield, Conn., it eliminated thousands of flights a year. Its ticket volume grew so low the company's US Air representative even called to inquire about the financial health of the company.xxvii HP reported a two percent reduction in its $800MM+ travel costs in Q4 2005, with less than half of its planned deployment of 24 Halo Collaboration Studios active (no wonder the company is considering doubling that number in the future)."

Unfortunately, we called the crash of the dollar and the airlines like Babe Ruth's storied home run at Wrigley Field.  Since December 2007, seven eight nine ten twenty-four different carriers have declared bankruptcy or ceased operations, forcing mergers like the recently announced Northwest and Delta union.  Count on continued turmoil in the industry to lead to additional fiascoes such as the faulty wiring issue that caused American Airlines to ground their entire MD-80 fleet, canceling about 3300 flights in the process.  Travel woes now extend beyond American shores, demonstrated by the way British Airways mishandled its move to the new T5 terminal at Heathrow - causing over 400 cancellations and thousands of pieces of stranded luggage. 

    As the depreciating dollar continues to fuel price increases expect the cost of physical travel to soar and price competition between the airlines to decline.  Bankruptcies and consolidation will reduce convenience as duplicate and unprofitable routes are eliminated.  Expect smart organizations to hedge their risk against travel disruptions and price increases by deploying telepresence to reduce the expenses and inconvenience associated with physical travel.  Publicly available telepresence will begin to take some of the travel market away from the airlines, compounding the carriers' problems as they lose their least price sensitive business travelers to the world of virtual travel. 

The HPL Timeline of Airline Bankruptcies, Mergers, Acquisitions, and Fiascoes
Bookmark this page... It will, unfortunately, be an on-going project...

Airline Bankruptcies and Failures

MaxJet_Air.jpgMaxJet Airlines - Filed December 24th, 2007 - MaxJet, an "all-business class carrier" files for bankruptcy and quits flying stranding passengers on Christmas Eve.

Big Sky Airlines March 8th, 2008 -  Big Sky Airlines is grounded. The Billings-based company flew its final flights into the city on Saturday after its parent company announced in December that it would cease operations because of disappointing revenues.
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Aloha Airlines - Filed March 20th 2008 - Ten days later, on March 30th, Aloha Airlines announced the suspension of all scheduled passenger flights the next day.



ATA_air.jpgATA Airlines - Filed April 2nd 2008 - ATA Airlines has discontinued all operations and cancelled all current and future flights.
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Skybus Airlines - Filed April 4th 2008 - Ceased operations as of April 5th, citing the lagging economy and rising fuel costs as causes

Skyway Airlines - April 5th 2008 - On January 16th, 2008 Midwest Airlines announced that it would transition the operation of all Midwest Connect flights from Skyway Airlines to SkyWest Airlines. Skyway's last day of operations was April 5th, 2008.

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Oasis Hong Kong Airlines - April 8th 2008 - Oasis stops accepting bookings on April 8th and ceases operations shortly thereafter. 

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Frontier Airlines - Filed April 11th 2008 - Frontier said it would continue normal business operations - operating its full schedule of flights and maintain employee wages, healthcare, vacation and other benefits.


Champion Airlines -
May 31st 2008 - Champion Air announced on March 31st that it would cease operation on May 31st 2008.  In the company's press release CEO Lee Steele announces that the company's business model "is no longer viable in a world of $110 oil" and "a struggling economy".

EOS.jpg
Champion_air.jpg EOS Airlines - April 26th, 2008 - "Business-class niche carrier Eos Airlines Inc. ceased operations yesterday after filing for bankruptcy protection, the latest casualty of a credit crunch and a money-losing airline industry that has been hit hard by high fuel prices."

Air Midwest - May 14th, 2008 -  Soaring fuel costs have forced Mesa Air Group to shut down subsidiary carrier Air Midwest. Service to 16 small cities in 10 states will be discontinued as a result. The cuts will begin next week and be completed by June 30. In Arizona, travelers will lose service in Kingman and Prescott.

Silverjet Airlines - May 30th, 2008 - Silverjet airlines, a "business-class only" carrier ceased operations on May 30th after failing to securing financing to continue operations. Silverjet_Bankruptcy.jpg Telepresence provider Teliris announced free telepresence meetings between New York City and London for Silverjet customers displaced by the airline's failure.

Gemini_Cargo.jpgGemini Air Cargo - June 19th, 2008 - Gemini Air Cargo filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Wednesday for the second time in two years. Gemini filed its recent Chapter 11 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of Florida and is represented by South Florida law firm Berger Singerman. Filing attorney Paul Singerman could not be immediately reached for comment.







Airline Mergers and Acquisitions




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Delta and Northwest Airlines - April 14th, 2008 - The two airlines agreed to a merger which "would create a global giant with more than 800 jets, 6,400 daily flights and nearly $32 billion in annual revenue. The carriers estimate the value of the new company at $17.7 billion."

LAvion.jpgBA announces purchase of French airline L'Avion - July 2nd, 2008 - British Airways said on Wednesday that it will buy French carrier L'Avion for 54 million pounds (68 million euros, 107 million dollars) to combine with its transatlantic OpenSkies operation.


Airlines Scaling Back Service

Continental_Logo.jpgContinental Airlines -   April 17th 2008 - Continental reports a net loss of $80 Million, or 81 cents per share and announces that "it would reduce domestic mainline capacity -- the number of seats for sale -- 5 percent beginning this fall and take another 14 single-aisle Boeing 737-300 aircraft out of service as leases expire beginning in September."



Southwest_Logo.jpgSouthwest Airlines - April 17th 2008 - Southwest announced that "its first-quarter net profit fell to $34 million, or 5 cents a share, from $93 million, or 12 cents a share, in the same period last year." The airline also announced that it was reducing the number of new aircraft acquisitions by 1/2

United_logo.jpgUnited Airlines - April 22nd 2008 - "the Chicago-based carrier said it will trim 2008 spending by $400 million, eliminate 1,100 jobs by the end of the year, cut domestic capacity 9 percent by the fourth quarter and ground 30 of its oldest and least-efficient aircraft."  The company also posted a $537 million dollar first quarter loss and saw the value of its shares decline by 35%.



Delta_Logo.jpgDelta Airlines - April 23rd 2008 - Delta said its net loss widened to $6.39 billion, or $16.15 a share, from $130 million. Delta blamed the $6.1 billion charge on fuel costs.  Delta's per-gallon costs rose 48% to $2.85 as the carrier hedged 27% of its fuel consumption and realized about $46 million in gains.  Delta said it would offer buyouts to more than half its employees and make substantial reductions in domestic flights while adding to international routes. The airline has said it aims to cut domestic flight capacity by 5% by August, in addition to a previous plan for a 5% cut this year. Delta's plans to shrink its fleet include eliminating 15 to 20 mainline and 60 to 70 regional jets by year-end.


Northwest_logo.jpgNorthwest Airlines - April 23rd 2008 - the fifth-largest U.S. carrier, posted a net loss of $ 4.14 billion, or $15.78 a share, compared with a year-earlier net loss of $292 million, or $3.34 a share. Northwest earlier announced plans to trim domestic capacity by 5 percent after the summer travel season by removing as many as 20 planes from flying. The carrier today also said it will suspend cargo freighter service to Guangzhou, China, on July 1 and to Taipei on Aug. 1 to improve aircraft utilization and profits.


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British Airways - June 2nd 2008 - British Airways expects to trim its capacity later this year, Chief Executive Willie Walsh said on Monday, due to the effects of soaring oil prices...Walsh said it was too early to say whether the airline would cut destinations as part of the move to reduce capacity, but said cutting the frequency of flights was more likely in the winter period which starts at the end of October...BA said last month its fuel costs were set to rise 1 billion pounds this year.


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Malaysia Airlines - June 2nd 2008 - Malaysia Airlines will review unprofitable routes and freeze recruitment as part of wide-ranging measures to cut costs, the national news agency reported Monday.The airline also plans to reduce the budget of all its divisions by 10 percent and stop spending on office refurbishment until further notice.  "Routes that bleed cash... will be cut off."


americanairlines.jpgAmerican Airlines - July 3rd, 2008 -  American Airlines, the US airline which is close to seeking a merger with British Airways, has told staff that it will cut 7,000 jobs by the end of the year, as it grounds aircraft in a bid to mitigate the impact of soaring fuel prices.
 


jazzair.jpgAir Canada Jazz - July 3rd, 2008 - Canada's discount airline Jazz Air said Thursday it will cut 270 employees as the regional airline operator reduces capacity by five percent. The job cuts follow the mid-June move by Jazz Air's primary customer, Air Canada, to cut 2,000 jobs as it reduces its flying by seven percent.


midwest_logo.jpg
 Midwest Airlines - July 14th, 2008 - Midwest Airlines, a unit of Midwest Air Group, on Monday said it would cut its work force by 1,200 employees, or 40 percent, making it the latest airline to reduce staffing amid soaring fuel prices.


Potential Airline Mergers and Acquisitions
 
United_USAir.jpg
United and US Airways - April 28th, 2008 - The two carriers stepped up their talks after Continental Airlines Inc. caught United off guard by deciding not to pursue a deal with the UAL Corp.-owned carrier. United Airlines and US Airways are in very advanced talks with the expectation of announcing within two weeks that they are combining, a person close to the negotiations told The Associated Press on Monday. Combined, United and US Airways have about 91,000 employees and annual revenues of $31.8 billion.


Iberia.jpg  BA close to joint venture with American and Iberia - July 3rd, 2008  - British Airways , American Airlines and Spain's Iberia are close to applying for antitrust immunity to form a transatlantic joint venture, the Financial Times said on Thursday. The airlines aim to reach an agreement on profit and revenue sharing this month, the paper said, citing executives of the three airlines, creating a new force dominating capacity between south-east Britain and the United States.


Airlines in Danger of Bankruptcy/Failure



AirTran_logo.jpg
AirTran Airlines - Two downgrades and a negative outlook given for the airline industry sent shares of AirTran Airways' parent company tumbling Monday nearly 19 percent to a new 52-week low."... AirTran is expected to continue to generate negative cash flow from operations and in the face of scheduled debt maturities and capital spending obligations, the company's modest cash balance could erode over the coming year," Moody's Investors Service said Monday as it downgraded AirTran's debt rating to a lower degree of junk status.... "AirTran has no unused lines of credit available and substantially all of its assets are encumbered," Moody's said.



Alitalia_logo.jpgAlitalia-Linee Aeree Italiane SpA- Cited by The Deal who notes: "Air France-KLM walked away from its... $217 million bid for Alitalia following the collapse of negotiations with unions on disagreements over how much restructuring work the carrier needed. The Alitalia auction is the government's latest attempt to sell its 49.9% stake in the money-losing carrier."


Mesa_Airlines_logo.jpgMesa Airlines - Cited in an AP story as vulnerable.  In early April 08 Delta announced that it was canceling a major contract worth $20 million a month to Mesa.  Mesa has filed a federal lawsuit to to keep the agreement.  The AP article also notes that Mesa subsidiary go! Airlines, an inter-island Hawaiian carrier reported a $20 million operating loss in the first 16 months of operations.

Midwest_airlines.jpgMidwest Airlines - Cited by The Deal which notes: "In accepting a $450 million take-private from white-knight bidder TPG Capital in August, Milwaukee-based Midwest escaped the reigns of hostile bidder AirTran Holdings Inc. "Midwest's fate could be tied to how willing TPG is to contribute new capital to the airline to help it buy new planes, which in turn could be determined by how bad the U.S. economy gets in the coming months."

Spirit_Air_logo.jpg Spirit Airlines - Cited by The Deal's Lou Whiteman as being vulnerable.  Whiteman noted that Spirit's markets rely heavily on tourism which could fall off if the country enters a prolonged recession.

Virgin_America_logo.jpgVirgin America Airlines - Avondale Partners airline analyst Bob McAdoo, in a research note, "cited preliminary filings with the Department of Transportation that suggest the carrier is rapidly losing money, and flew planes that were considerably emptier than some of its competitors through the end of last year." He noted "parallels between Virgin and the three failed airlines."






 
Fiascoes

American_Cancellations.jpgAmerican Airlines Cancels 3,300 Flights - April 2008 - American Airlines cancels nearly 3,300 flights last week for wiring inspections on MD-80 aircraft required by federal safety guidelines revealed in an audit.


Lost_luggage.jpg
British Airways Cancels 400 Flights, Delays Thousands of Passenger Bags - April 2008 - British Airways botches a move to a new terminal at Heathrow forcing the cancellation of more than 400 flights and misplacing thousands of bags.




                  Price Increases

Chart_up.jpgDelta CEO: "Fares need to rise 15-20%" Some captured cities already up 80% - April 22nd 2008 - "During the first week of April, for example, leisure fares from traditional carriers on 280 major routes rose 13 percent from the previous year, according to data compiled by travel research firm Harrell Associates.But prices to several smaller cities served by fewer flights rose substantially more. Prices between New York and Pittsburgh, for example, doubled to $68 one-way, while a ticket from Newark, N.J., to Cleveland rose 80 percent to $124, according to the data."


Airlines_baggage.jpgAirlines to Charge $25 for Second Bag - April 22nd, 2008 - "Five of the six major airlines in the United States plan to start charging coach passengers as much as $25 next month to check a second bag, the latest move in their quest to offset high fuel prices."


Exec_aircraft.jpgU.S. Private-Jet Fuel Taxes Rise 65% in Senate Accord - April 25th 2008 - "U.S. business jetowners would pay 65 percent more in fuel taxes to finance federal air-traffic control upgrades, under an agreement among Senate leaders...The levy would increase to 36 cents a gallon from 21.8 cents now"


General Commercial & Executive Aviation Bad News

Airline_losses.jpgHead of EasyJet predicts that high oil prices will leave only 5 major carriers in Europe.  Claims 50 carriers are endangered - June 2nd, 2008 - John Kohlsaat, head of EasyJet Germany, told Berlin's daily Der Tagesspiegel that high fuel prices could bankrupt up to 50 carriers leaving only 5 major carries in Europe. 

Airline Industry Association Predicts between 2.3 Billion and 6.1 Billion in losses for airlines - June 3rd, 2008 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts losses of 2.3 Billion dollars this year if oil averages $106.50 a barrel and $6.1 Billion dollars if oil averages $135.

Bankruptcies seen for major airlines - June 14, 2008 - All of the major airlines could be in bankruptcy by early next year if oil prices stay where they are, a new study predicts. The grim analysis by the consulting firm AirlineForecasts was commissioned by the Business Travel Coalition. Its author concludes that the airline industry is in a full-blown crisis "and heading toward a catastrophe."

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